The charts below include both cumulative and 20-game moving averages of the measures, as well as +/- 1 standard deviations from league average (50%) for the seasons queried. . "You also have a good stick. Table 1. No new player notes available. Background information on these statistics can be found here. Having just added the 2014-15 season to our historical comparison charts, now was a good time to revisit (as I promised in my posts here and here on Pittsburghs 1983-84 tank battle) this seasons battle between Arizona, Toronto, Edmonton, and Buffalo. Giordano again is a great example, and many people will point to this variation when trying to illustrate how a player is capable of driving possession despite being on a bad possession team. This search was created with an old version of Stathead. This was a fairly stark evolution of player usage, but it led me to wonder if there were any other things we could see by looking at finer-grained data from 2005-06 to the present. We are proud to be at the forefront of this research by developing both hardware and software forpartnering leading academic institutes, national governing bodies and development teams and leagues. Obviously, there's a big grey area there, as the rule is vague in how . This measure has been tested and shown to be very close to our modern possession measures. Quantifying natural puck turnovers allows us to derive estimates of temporal puck possession. Bubble's Color: The color of each bubble measures the even-strength save percentage of a team. Some teams, like the Boston Bruins, have been able to sustain a higher SPSV% over time with strong goaltending across multiple seasons, but for the most part teams hover around the 1000 mark. Already a subscriber? The number of stints a skater logs during a game. Accoding to Routley (2015) there is a 67% probability that the away team will win the game when having a one-goal lead going into the third period. Photo by Bobby Schultz, via Wikimedia Commons. . As I asked when I wrote about the topic with Pittsburgh in mind, it still gives rise to an interesting question: is it more wrong to tank than to maintain a low level all year? In hockey, possession is the name of the game. Odds are not destiny;out-shot teams make the playoffs all the time. Goldman M & Rao JM (2011). Given the major events of the day for the Blackhawks, it's hard . Figure 1. DFF% - Dangerous Fenwick For % The NHL trade deadline has arrived. Radio: KFAN 100.3 FM. The Ultimate Source for Hockey Fans & Professionals. Expected Goals For /(Expected Goals For+ Expected Goals Against)*100. ponder said: Don't like this as a Leafs fan. CF% is calculated as the sum of shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots over the shots against, missed shots against and blocked shots against at equal strength. Similarly, a handful of event types inform that the documented event team does not have the puck, e.g., a hit. Additionally, the conference houses eight out of the top ten offensive teams in the NHL along with some of the best goaltenders such as Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Linus Ullmark, Vitek Vanecek, and Frederik . It feels like we've been talking about him since he was 13 years old, and maybe some people have, but it's clear . But what about that "strong on the puck" reference? Many are commonplace, such as shots and goals. It would be greatly appreciated and would By using rate statistics, we can view skaters on a level playing field and compare them based on the same criteria. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. Theres a seemingly endless amount of hockey statistics. Note that under the DFF% column data prior to 2019-2020 season is Expected GF % (xGF%). At the team level, that is simple. Some of the limits of the display are really just the limits of the embed and WordPress. Neutral zone faceoffs are ignored. He signed a one-year deal with the Ducks as a rejuvenation period to eventually move to a . Last season, the Kings led the League in shot attempts for percentage in score-close situations at 57.3 percent. Always knowing where you want the puck to go and getting a good stick on the puck all of the time. Take a shot on goal, from anywhere on the ice, even if your team is struggling to move the . We plan to tweak our algorithms to better estimate times of natural turnovers (possession changes). Rel DFF% - Relative Dangerous Fenwick For % Created & updated by Patrick Bacon @TopDownHockey. Patrick Kane of the Chicago Blackhawks was second among forwards in the League last season, with 44.4 percent offensive zone starts. (LogOut/ Although it might seem counterintuitive to think that the trailing team draws more penalties than the leading team, its true. "Strong on the puck" or "hard on the puck" are common descriptors we hear in hockey. If you plan to continue using this search, you should rebuild the search using the new version of Stathead (and update your bookmarks or links accordingly). By the Numbers: Identifying the NHL's best puck-moving defensemen. And who a coach chooses to deploy in certain situations can offer insight about strategy or willingness to trust a player's defensive acumen. The possession column and rows identifying general turnovers (those highlighted with red boxes) are derived via our algorithms and are not comprised in nominal NHL play-by-play files. Keeping that in mind, the 60-40 Rule we established here a year ago looks pretty good for assessing game flow, but there are ways within that flow that can tip the scale. There can be good possession players on a bad possession team. The concept, which was first developed by former Battle of Alberta blogger Matt Fenwick, is based on considering blocked shots to be a skill, and not as random from team-to-team as other events on the ice. Could you identify which team had the puck and when? HockeyTech installed our HockeyTech Analytics product in the Columbia Ice Fields Arena at the University of Waterloo. An average SPSV% for a team or player is expected to be 1000. Tweet from @AlisonL: Just tremendous work by Gourde to set up this goal #SeaKraken pic.twitter.com/vBfOHUYnQe, "Hard on the puck means skating hard," Gourde said. Pittsburgh mostly holds the puck in OT . Instantaneous puck possession changes, i.e., those that happen on-the-fly and not after a stoppage of play, are documented in the NHL play-by-play files via giveaways and takeaways. NHL Scoring Trends, 2007-08 to 2017-18: Is the League Getting MoreCompetitive? Also called Shot Attempts (SAT) by the NHL, it's an improved form of +/- which measures shot attempts, including shots on goal, blocks, and misses, and it can be expressed in either +/- or percentage format. Now look at Table 2. We are currently focused on exploratory analyses of temporal estimates of puck possession. If the number is above 1000, it means the team or player is going through somewhat of a lucky stretch and is likely to regress. Rule 83.1 states in part, "a player . Twonights ago, when no one was looking, I tweeted out a telling statistic to understand how teams have reacted to the salary cap post-lockout. 2015-2016. The teams will meet again in Southern California on March 14 to close out their season series. Check out the number of icing events committed by each team. Luckily, this accounts for only a small portion of the data. For the sake of brevity, well refer to these types of metrics as advanced stats. By adding those three types of a shot together, you have the number of shot attempts. After the Jets scored their fifth goal of the game, the Blues won the following faceoff and immediately drew a penalty. He paid attention to how much this frustrated him when other players did it and incorporated it into how he plays. We asked him about being hard on the puck. If you average the sum of all the events occurring between the Jets gaining possession and scoring a goal, it equals one. As some of you also know, I have a lot of historical game data, and that includes all the zone time from these seasons. Or write about sports? 2016-2017. 4: Joe Thornton - San Jose Sharks. The name itself was reportedly given to honor Jim Corsi's mustache. This season, Nash leads skaters in even-strength G/60 by a wide margin and is in contention for the Rocket Richard Trophy. What does this mean? Scoring Leaders, Expected Goals, Team Stats. It is a predictive measure which estimates a player's impact on the game by measuring contributions including: Even Strength Offense & Defense, Power-Play Offense, Penalty Differential and Faceoff success. A coach is unable to choose which players he sends out for a faceoff after his team ices the puck, but there are plenty of other situations when he makes those decisions. the official stats partner of the NBA, NHL and MLB. Three stars are awarded each game in NHL, one to the best 3 players in . Record: 4-9-2. Theyre clearly turnovers, but a large gray area exists when defining whether a team truly committed a giveaway or a takeaway. All rights reserved. In other words, the Jets were already had probability in their favor going into the third period. Gaining possession of the puck and turning it into offensive opportunity has been one of the calling cards of the Kraken's style of play . The actual distance each player skates by amount,shift by shift and accumulated over the course of an entire game. First, the game was tied for only a short period of time (i.e., 241 seconds, roughly four minutes) until Winnipeg took an early lead in the game on a power-play goal (note the Penalties Drawn column). Enter Search Term. Puck possession is a valuble variable - generally teams that possess the puck the most have a better chance of winning - but until Corsi, there was no real stat that calculated which players or teams . In some cases, a team thats already laid low doesnt need to tank deliberatelybut on the flip side, I suppose that team also assumes risk in losing support and fans by not appearing competitive all season. It turns out that neutral zone play is a huge factor in a team's shot differential (and by inference, puck possession). Shows a players DFF% relative to their teammates. Wennberg, who also has the second most assists on the team (11), says part of his strategy is to not just use his stick to shield opponents away from the puck but also his skates. Bubble's Vertical Position: The y-axis measures luck at even-strength hockey and uses SHSV% as the metric. As some of you also know, I have a lot of historical game data, and that includes all the zone time from these seasons. Hockey games aren't played the same way across 60 minutes. The bad news is that there isn't really a stat that directly measures puck possession. During this time the Jets committed three penalties and as a result, the Blues went on three separate power-plays. These are defined as halfway (temporally) between both sandwiching events. View NHL Standings between any two dates or filter standings by home / road games. If you utilize material unique to a Sports Reference 46.1%. Stathead: Baseball's Most Powerful Search Tool, Stathead: Basketball's Most Powerful Research Tool, Stathead: Football's Most Powerful Research Tool, Stathead: Hockey's Most Powerful Research Tool. Bunnel D (2018, Jul 5) Which World Cup Team is the Best at Wasting Time? Corsi For%(on ice) - Corsi For%(off ice). Thats remarkable. They could have completely abandoned shooting the puck altogether (which they did once they had a five-goal lead) and still won the game. But once again, the Capitals had a reasonable excuse, while the Sabres have walked into this situation with eyes wide open. Current Advanced Stats Summary . Odds are, a team that performs like the 2014-2015 Calgary Flames in shots, possession, and chances will miss the playoffs. Data available for the 2007-08 through 2022-23 seasons. 4-5). Hockey-Reference utilizes Official NHL data for current NHL seasons. See Individual Player Career Stats and Shot Maps. In This gave them a shot attempts differential of plus-931, and a shot attempts percentage of 56.8 percent, which was the best in the NHL. This year, it was 5:50 (Anthony Peluso). The league average value is ~8.5%. A single possession is discerned by investigating sequential lines of an NHL play-by-play file and identifying points in the game (indices), where it is clear the puck has changed from team A to team B and vice versa. Allowed. We need speed and puck carriers. January 24, 2015, 8:59 PM. When you want stats on teams or players, PuckPedia is the only source you need to remember. Note: Each week, your goaltenders must reach the minimum of 3 appearances. As some of you know, the NHL tracked offensive zone time for two seasons, 2000-01 and 2001-02, then inexplicably stopped. Sure enough, Ovechkin's SPSV% this season is 99.7, and his plus-minus is plus-11, perhaps not completely by coincidence. Doing so is a way to measure who creates an offensive advantage for themselves and their team and that ties to likelihood to win games. Our ongoing research, combined with our existing digital data services and tools, provide seamless integration for all Leagues, Teams, General Managers, coaches and admin staff. Score differential splits with advanced statistics for game 20011 of the 2018-2019 season between the St. Louis Blues and the Winnipeg Jets. We know that DAL won the faceoff at 752 seconds (Jason Spezza is on DAL and Evgeny Kuznetsov is on WSH). The Jets only iced the puck once all game and it occurred when they had a four-goal lead. Players who start more shifts in the defensive zone are not expected to help their team dominate the puck possession battle, but someone like Bergeron who can is incredibly valuable. 8:40 AM. Dashed White Line: Historically, teams above the dashed white line are the most likely to qualify for the playoffs. PPR will be refined & have future iterations. Player's current fantasy ranking based on stats filter selected . A USAT% value greater than 50% suggests that a team is consistently outshooting their opponents. Fenwick is a variant of Corsi that counts only shots on goal and missed shots; blocked shots are not included. Travis Yost has been following the absolutely terrible Sabres season all year, and has raised some questions about whether its an all-time worst team. Last season, the Flames conceded 527 more shot attempts than they took, according to War-On-Ice.com. ON-ICE POSITIONING Our system tracks the exact location of where each player skates, tracking their on-ice path, shift by shift and cumulatively throughout the game. hockey league ofcials. Some hockey portraits on this site are licensed from Images on Ice, Hockeys Photo Agency. by Routley (2015) shows identical findings in his study of over eight years worth of play-by-play data, and notes that this may suggest a levelling bias in penalty calling. For each possession, we generate a handful of information invcluding but not limited to: After the possession summaries are generated, we produce possession splits by aggregating the possession summaries for a given game by: Table 4 provides an example of a team-level split for the exemplar game between the St Louis Blues and the Winnipeg Jets. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. All NHL logos and marks and NHL team logos and marks depicted herein are the property of the NHL and the respective teams and may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of NHL Enterprises, L.P. NHL 2023. That's the good news. HockeyTech is committed to the development ofadvanced analytics technology to assist our clients to improve their scouting and coaching. The future of advanced stats is through player and puck tracking. Puck possession has always been important in hockey, but analysts have proven how valuable it can be. We have used the help of the University of Waterloo Men's and Women's teams to create a living lab where we develop, test and provide elite analytics from game situations. Poor proxy. All rights reserved. Note: I used the cumulative version of the measure below, and added lines for one standard deviation below league-average in both seasons. There's a strong correlation between shot attempts percentage and winning hockey games. Comparing the number of shot attempts for and against a team helps determine which teams are best at controlling the puck. With all this in mind, the following question comes to mind. NHL Scoring Leaders The greater the puck possession in the zone, the greater a players's chance of scoring, assisting, etc. If you fail to reach this mark, you will lose all of your goaltending games for that week. Since joining the Islanders in October 2021, he has played in all 144 games with them. Advanced statistics have been instrumental in providing hockey teams with vital information behind the final score and players goals and assists. by Alison Lukan / @AlisonL . Ryder A (2004) Shot Quality: a methodology for the study of the quality of a hockey teams shots This is very similar to shot attempts, but with one caveat: Blocked shots are not counted. How did the Coyotes and Maple Leafs compare to what Ive christened the gold standard for tanks, the 1983-84 Pittsburgh Penguins tank for Mario Lemieux? The Wild took Game 1, 4-2, a score pumped up by a pair of empty net goals by Minnesota and a shorthander by the Blues in the last 1:13 of the game. Most historical data provided by Dan Diamond and Associates. The Jets displayed superior shot quality compared to the Blues during all scenarios except for play occurring when having a lead of at least four goals. Despite this, the Blues were unable to score a single goal during any of these power-plays. The last meeting between these teams was epic, with New Jersey rallying from a 2-1 deficit to win thanks to Dougie Hamilton's two goals. 45.3%. If we filter the data to even-strength play during the portion of the game where the score differential is +/- 1, the possession times drop to 1189 and 1036 seconds for the Blues and Jets, respectively. The Flames finished 27th during the 2013-14 season in shot attempts percentage (46.3), but Giordano's SAT% was 53.4. Total Points 5 on 5 per 60 minutes played, GSAx There are a handful of events that confirm the event team has control of the puck, such as a shot or a missed shot. The other expansion team in 74-75, the Kansas City Scouts, lasted two years before moving to Colorado to become the Rockies (the team subsequently moved to New Jersey in 1982-83 and changed their name to the Devils). Our system tracks the exact location of where each player skates, tracking their on-ice path, shift by shift and cumulatively throughout the game. Shot attempts percentage and unblocked shot attempts percentage are usually pretty similar, but differences between the two can illustrate which teams are better at blocking shots at their end of the ice and avoiding having their shots blocked at the opponents' end. Second, the Winnipeg Jets had a one-goal lead over the Blues for a majority (roughly 70%) of the game. Never been a meaningful correlation between shot attempts & puck possession. Nash missed time last season because of an injury, playing 65 games, but was one of the most efficient even-strength goal scorers when he was on the ice. Allocative and dynamic efficiency in NBA decision making. For our purposes, possession counts from the time a player receives a pass or retrieves a loose puck to the time when possession is lost or a successful pass is completed.